The 98th annual Academy Awards are set for Sunday, March 15, at 4 p.m. on ABC and Hulu. And this year promises to dust up more than its fair share of surprises.

Some things will go as expected. “KPop Demon Hunters” should leave with two wins, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” owns the visual effects award and “Frankenstein” will grab assorted production categories.

But the most talked-about categories invite a degree of chaos, from “Shakespeare in Love” upstaging “Saving Private Ryan” to “La La Land” accidentally named the winner. Luckily, a team of seasoned movie lovers are here to explain why they’re right and everyone else is just guessing.

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

 

Stellan Skarsgard

This is clearly category fraud. Skarsgard is a costar in “Sentimental Value,” not a supporting character. But here we are, and he’s the favored choice, spreading nabbing the Golden Globe but not even a nom at the Actor Awards. Is he the best option? Perhaps not (we don’t talk about “Frankenstein” enough), but the excitement for his nomination makes him an alluring choice. –Tim Posada

 

Sean Penn

Skarsgard may have no business being in this category, though his veteran narrative is tough to beat. But missing the BAFTA and no nomination at the Actors does give me hesitation. The next best bet would be Sean Penn in “One Battle After Another,” which would put him in the rarified space of winning three Oscars. That doesn’t happen often, but moment-for-moment there are few performances that made quite as big a mark as his unhinged Col. Lockjaw. – Rance Collins

 

Sean Penn

Sean Penn’s performance as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s genre-bending epic “One Battle After Another” will probably soon be studied. Both terrifying and laughably pathetic, the villainous military officer toes the line between grounded and surreal in a way that only Penn could have pulled off. His commitment and creativity shine through every moment the character is on screen – from his snarling line delivery to his idiosyncratic, Vince McMahon-esque gait. Expect the two-time Oscar winner to be smoking a cigarette, or otherwise looking tastefully frazzled at the awards ceremony. – Tabor Brewster

 

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

 

Amy Madigan

Madigan’s bewitching performance in “Weapons” will go down in horror film history. Normally, that wouldn’t be positive element of Oscar gold, but Academy voters are warming to the genre, especially between best pic hopefuls “The Substance” last year and “Sinners.” The key is the film’s commentary. “Weapons” has that, accented by a bonkers, menacing villain in Madigan, up for her second nom more than four decades apart. – Tim Posada

 

Wunmi Mosaku

This is maybe the most exciting race to watch. The greatest crossover between winners for Oscar precursors, at least in recent years, has happened between the BAFTAs. While Madigan certainly got momentum at exactly the right time with her delightful win at the Actors, Wunmi Mosaku has the BAFTA and she’s in the movie (“Sinners”) that scored the most Academy nominations… not to mention that Mosaku is the true moral compass of her film. – Rance Collins

 

Amy Madigan

When Amy Madigan first appeared on screen as the sinister Aunt Gladys in “Weapons,” I nearly jumped out of my skin. Her creepy, conniving performance is the stuff of nightmares – one that doesn’t hold back yet still can be read as allegorical. Combine this with the fact that the 40-year gap since her last Oscar nomination set a new record, and it’s clear she deserves the win. – Tabor Brewster

 

 

Actor in a Leading Role

 

Michael B. Jordan

Jordan’s portrayal of twins in “Sinners” is too good to pass up. In part, he plays four distinct roles: human Smoke and Stack and controlled vampire Stack and liberated vamp Stack. One unique character is hard enough to portray, but Jordan presents several sympathetic performances with differing motivations. Jordan’s the most compelling option for leading actor. The Actor Awards got it right, and hopeful the Academy matches that energy. – Tim Posada

 

Timothée Chalamet

Timothée Chalamet made a terrible faux pas last week, seeming to put down ballet and opera as art – but the backlash likely came too late to have any measurable effect on the Oscar winners. The clip dropped the day voting closed. It’s tough to see this reversing any momentum, although Chalamet certainly is vulnerable. He lost both the Actor and BAFTA, but with each going to a different contestant – and the BAFTA going to Academy-ineligible Robert Aramayo in “I Swear” – Jordan is far from a lock. So, I’m going Chalamet. But I’m honestly rooting for Jordan. Or Ethan Hawke. – Rance Collins

 

Leonardo DiCaprio

While Timmy and Mike might be the favorites, Leo brings just enough befuddled dad energy to his performance as ex-revolutionary Bob Ferguson to walk home with another win for “One Battle After Another.” The role might just mark a new era for DiCaprio – moving away from swashbuckling heartthrob and into the washed-up anti-hero reminiscent of “The Dude.” – Tabor Brewster

 

 

Actress in a Leading Role

 

Jessie Buckley

Buckley is quite good in “Hamnet,” a story about the grief behind “Hamlet” in the Shakespeare family. But declaring her the winner is not entirely a vote of approval. She’ll probably win, but Rose Byrne and Kate Hudson are frankly much more exciting options. Still, Buckley keeps winning elsewhere, so her chances here are incredibly high. – Tim Posada

 

Jessie Buckley

Buckley, too, had a box office bomb (“The Bride”) and a late-in-the-game PR stumble – when she said in an interview that she angered the cat-owning community by admitting she made her fiancé give up his furry pets – but this controversary had much less traction than Chalamet’s. And with the performance moment of the year – you truly will never forget “Hamlet” in “Hamnet” – Buckley is the closest thing to unstoppable at the Oscars this year. But if I was voting, Rose Byrne would get a point for her stunning performance in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” – Rance Collins

 

Rose Byrne

I’ll probably never watch “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” again. Not because I didn’t like it. In fact, I thought it was one of the most underrated films of the year. But the claustrophobic nature of the film was so successfully stress-inducing that I don’t think I can ever put myself through the experience again. Byrne’s neurotic performance amps it up to 10. – Tabor Brewster

 

 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

 

“One Battle After Another”

Paul Thomas Anderson is an incredible filmmaker, but his reputation as a screenwriter shines a bit brighter with noms for the likes of “Magnolia” and “There Will Be Blood.” “One Battle After Another” might not match them, but it stands out amongst the present competition. It’s hard to imagine another film winning, especially considering how he updates Thomas Pynchon’s novel “Vineland” to speak to present concerns, not the ‘60s counterculture. From story structure and balance to biting dialogue and satire laced in, “One Battle” is an adaptation all its own. – Tim Posada

 

“One Battle After Another”

The writing categories are pretty set at this point – largely because the top Best Picture nominees aren’t competing against one another here. Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the most celebrated filmmakers of the century, but his Oscar-losing streak only pales in comparison to songwriter Diane Warren’s. It is all but assured that the near-unanimous praise for his bombastic adaptation of “Vineland” into “One Battle After Another” will finally put a little golden guy on his mantle. – Rance Collins

 

“One Battle After Another”

One Oscar After Another. – Tabor Brewster

 

 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

 

“Sinners”

The options this year are quite strong (“Blue Moon” shout out), but “Sinners” is particularly exceptional. Story flows wonderfully from period drama to horror story. The richness of Ryan Coogler’s screenplay is how juggles so much. It could have remained a simple story about two brothers ripping off organized crime and running their juke joint. Or it could’ve been entirely about the mayhem a single vampire unleashed in a single evening. Instead, it’s something else truly original. Absent that point of this category? – Tim Posada

 

“Sinners”

Another obvious win here, as Tim pointed out, for “Sinners.” There is no movie from the last year that truly defined the word “original” quite like this genre-bending horror drama. Ryan Coogler has quickly positioned himself as one of the most exciting creators in Hollywood, and the richness of his text certainly caught fire at the box office. With Best Director and Best Picture toss-ups, the Academy won’t miss the opportunity here to honor a man that’s helping keep originality and theaters alive. – Rance Collins

 

“Sinners”

Blues. Vampires. Identical twins named Smoke and Stack. What’s not to love in this screenplay? – Tabor Brewster

 

 

Directing

 

Paul Thomas Anderson

It’s gonna be Ben Affleck all over again. The best pic and best director won’t match. To a degree, it makes sense. Anderson’s films are beloved, and he directs the hell out of this one. Practical shoots and insane performances, this film packs in so much under the watchful, precise eye of an auteur too often ignored for his many contributions to artful cinema over the last 30 years. This is probably P.T.’s year, and it’s about time. – Tim Posada

 

Paul Thomas Anderson

Here’s the deal… While it is certainly possible that Coogler could walk away with it here – “Sinners” does have those record-breaking 16 nominations – this is Anderson’s to lose. He’s got decades of goodwill behind him and that “overdue” feeling, matched with such an acclaimed movie as “One Battle,” will be enough to get him across the finish line. While his work in “One Battle” is certainly enough, keep in mind that – when voting in this category – Academy members will be considered “There Will Be Blood,” “Magnolia” and all the Oscars Anderson hasn’t won. – Rance Collins

 

Paul Thomas Anderson

Fourteen Academy Award nominations and no wins to date, it’s finally time for the beloved director Paul Thomas Anderson to get his Oscar. Visually stunning, oozing with creativity and speaking to the current moment, “One Battle After Another” feels like the perfect storm. – Tabor Brewster

 

 

Best Picture

 

“Sinners”

“One Battle After Another” might be favored by some, but no other film united folks quite like “Sinners.” Sure, the occasional “I don’t get” echoed across critical circles and the digital void, but most industry folks couldn’t shut up it, and rightly so. How often does a film embrace horror, musical and dramatic elements. “Sinners” ain’t Oscar bait. It’s a rejection of formula filmmaking. This is refreshing cinema at its finest. If there’s any speck of justice left in the Academy, this is the winner. – Tim Posada

 

“Sinners”

“One Battle After Another” is still the smart money, especially since it won the BAFTA which has a huge crossover with Academy membership… but but but… “Sinners” I think is going to take this. It was the movie of last year, at least in terms of audience meets box office. It has a good chance to win in nearly every single category. It won the Actors, and it hit it hit a whole new stride in the week before voting closed – that means something. While “One Battle” is certainly worthy, it would be tough to argue about how great it would feel, all around, if “Sinners” won. Let’s do this. – Rance Collins

 

“Train Dreams”

It might not be as favored as “Sinners” or “One Battle,” but my wildcard pick for best picture, “Train Dreams,” is certainly a worthy contender. Full of visual beauty, understated performances and haunting themes, “Train Dreams” examines what it means to be human, set against the intriguing backdrop of American westward expansion. I’ll be revisiting it in the future. – Tabor Brewster