Demi Moore is the Best Actress frontrunner for her performance in “The Substance” (2024). (photo courtesy of Mubi)

Oscar season is upon us, and in the lead up to the ceremony the critics’ groups and industry guilds are bestowing their respective honors on an increasingly narrow set of films. Betting markets are all in a handful of movies and performers, and Reddit threads discuss endlessly who might – or might not – end up in the winner’s circle.

Last week, the fires got precariously close to Hollywood Boulevard and destroyed – forever – some landmarks indelibly linked to our entertainment lineage, including the Will Rogers State Historic Park. Talking about gold trophies may seem frivolous at the moment, but this year’s show – to me – will be a chance for our community to come together behind a medium that fueled our blockbuster growth and sustains us to this day.

Movies are what put Los Angeles on the map. Film and television is a giant industry for our town, even after a pandemic and strikes put a strain on it. Thousands upon thousands of jobs depend on the success of box office, streamer clicks and Neilson ratings. Awards, bring much needed exposure to projects that might otherwise be lost, celebrating an artform that not only brings people together, but keeps Angelenos employed. The awards themselves are a cottage industry, with everyone from publicists to caterers waiters to fashion houses to hotel workers depending on the ceremonies to make rent – it’s not just about celebrities adorned with glitz and the glam. Or rather, the glitz and the glam doesn’t just appear from the ether. In actuality, the Oscars brings $130 million to the local economy – and that was in 2013 dollars – according to the Hollywood Reporter.

Art is who we are. And the show always goes on.

I’m more than ready this season – and getting readier by the day. I’ve been making frequent use of my AMC A-List pass, consuming anything and everything that might end up with a statuette. Per usual, I’ve walked away from some movies thinking, “Eh…,” and others thinking, “Wow,” only for the king-makers to disagree with me. It’s all a little arbitrary after all – art is subjective. How do we pick favorites?

But you see, quality is only one factor. If quality was all that matters, we’d have a boring “best of” list of Best Pictures dating back to the Oscars’ humble beginnings. Instead, we have wild cards like “The Greatest Show on Earth,” the 1952 winner that is, quite frankly, terrible. It was just lucky enough to have a bunch of stars and be directed by Cecil B. DeMille, who was viewed as overdue at the time. The Academy couldn’t have known then that they should have waited for “The Ten Commandments” in 1956, but that would’ve denied us another bonkers winner, “Around the World in Eighty Days.” That won largely because it was a big budget, widescreen spectacle at a time when the industry was needing mammoth productions to pull audiences away from their television sets. See? Each year tells ussomething about the climate of the industry and the world at large.

So, what’s the narrative this year? Well, I can tell you what will be nominated for Best Picture without a shadow of doubt: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked.” Up to 10 films can be nominated in the category. I’d put the next up as “Dune: Part Two,” “Nickle Boys,” “A Real Pain,” “September 5,” “Sing Sing” and “The Substance.”

As to the winner? That’s still anyone’s guess. Smart money is on “The Brutalist,” which is – admittedly – my personal favorite and likely the most ambitious movie. Its star, Adrian Brody, is the front runner for Best Actor, as well, although Timothée Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown” is stiff competition. But for Best Picture, I’m leaning toward “Wicked” right now, because I’m thinking that the more populist, hopeful film – one that has galvanized theaters, mind you – meets the unique social and political moment.

My favorite category, and the one that I believe is the most interesting historically, is Best Actress. After all, Best Actress gave us Joan Crawford accepting an Oscar in bed when she was “too ill” (read: nervous) to attend the ceremony. It gave us Halle Berry’s groundbreaking, heart-wrenching elation. It also almost gave us “La La Land” as Best Picture, since it was Emma Stone’s winning Best Actress envelope that led to that infamous snafu.

Demi Moore gave an acceptance speech for the ages at the Golden Globes last week when she won Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy for “The Substance.” Her journey from a “popcorn actress” to a serious contender in her 60s is a relatable, root-able comeback story – the kind that won Crawford her Oscar, Jessica Tandy her “Driving Miss Daisy” trophy and, just recently, Michelle Yeoh her recognition for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” I have Moore as my walk-away winner.

Mikey Madison for “Anora,” Karla Sofia Gascon for “Emilia Pérez” – who would be the first trans actress ever nominated – and Cynthia Erivo for “Wicked” all seem like locks for nominations, but that fifth slot … that one is the most contentious race in the game. Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) and Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) made it to the Globes. Marianne Jean-Baptiste is a critical darling in “Hard Truths.” Pamela Anderson has been the real surprise of the season thus far, racking up a Globe nod and a Screen Actors Guild nom for “The Last Showgirl.” With that movie hitting wide release just last week, and her co-star Jamie Lee Curtis also managing a couple of key Supporting Actress notices, she’s my pick for the fifth slot.

I, of course, have opinions elsewhere. A Culkin for Supporting Actor? Saldaña versus Grande for Supporting Actress? But that’s all my predictions for now. The awards soldier on, though the telecasts themselves may eventually be scaled down, postponed or fundraiser-hybrids. This is a key part of our city’s identity, and I – for one – am more excited than ever to celebrate the uniquely Los Angeles artform.

The 97th Academy Awards is scheduled to air on ABC and stream on Hulu March 2 at 5 p.m.

Sidney Poitier’s Best Actor win for “Lilies of the Field” (1962) is one of the Academy Awards’ greatest moments. (photo by Rance Collins)