The awards season comes to its annual climax this Sunday as the Hollywood elite, otherwise known as those illusive members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, decide what films we, the viewing public, should care about. We’ll see some familiar faces on the bill, like “Harry Potter”, “Transformers” (don’t worry, only for effects awards) and even those psychedelic puppets, “The Muppets”, but Oscar’s theme this year appears to be films most people don’t know exist. So get ready for an educational evening of “I didn’t see that one.”

The Basics

George Clooney turns in an Oscar-nominated performance with Shailene Woodley in Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants”. (photo courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Let’s knock out some of the basics. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II” or “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” own the Visual Effects category for one simple reason, I can’t imagine anyone actually voting for “Transformers 3” or “Real Steel” (that robot boxing movie starring Hugh Jackman). The real contenders for Sound Editing and Mixing are “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “Hugo”, and my money is on “Dragon” (for Film Editing as well). As for Costume Design and Art Design, “Hugo” and “The Artist” go head-to-head, and it’s anyone’s guess. The only award “The Tree of Life” might leave with is Cinematography –– even if the story is awful, it sure was pretty.

Music

“Man of Muppet” will take original song, and while John Williams provides the scores for Spielberg’s “Adventures of Tintin” and “War Horse”, Ludovic Bource has all but got it in the bag for his score of the silent film, “The Artist”.

Screenplay

While “The Artist” might sweep in most categories, Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” owns the Original Screenplay category. You can’t top the master of nihilism and dialogue, especially when he finally finds something to be optimistic about in this delightful flick. As for Adapted Screenplay, “Hugo” might be a more engaging film, but “The Descendants” is a far cleaner narrative, making it a shoo-in.

Leading Players

Asa Butterfield plays Hugo, who lives in the walls of a Paris train station and works to finish a robotic automaton. (photo courtesy of Paramount Pictures)

It’s Meryl Streep vs. Viola Davis here. Sure, Streep is her usual charming self, but let’s be honest, she ain’t bringing anything new to the table in “The Iron Lady”. As for Davis, she’s a powerhouse, whether in minor roles in “Solaris” or “Doubt”, or a leading role in “The Help”. She clearly deserves an award, though her performance in “The Help” is perhaps the most stereotypical role she’s chosen.

George Clooney is the frontrunner here for his sensational performance in “The Descendants”, but it’s difficult to ignore Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”, or the stunning Jean Dujardin for doing everything required of a leading performer without saying a word in “The Artist”.

Supporting Players

Max von Sydow is the only saving grace for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”, but Chris Plummer (“Beginners”) is all over it.

For female supporting role, two nominations from “The Help” place the odds in its favor, and rightfully so. They’re both equally splendid performances by Octavio Spencer (who will most likely win) and Jessica Chastain. But let’s not rule out Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist” just yet, nor forget to mention Melissa McCarthy for creating perhaps the most memorable performance of the year in “Bridesmaids”. She may not win here, but people will quote her for years, and I’m sure the MTV Movie Awards will create some category just for her.

Best Director

Jean Dujardin as George Valentin and Bérénice Bejo as Pepper Miller in “The Artist” steal the show - and perhaps a few Oscars as well. (photo courtesy of the Weinstein Company)

Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” might have sensational performances and a distinct message (even if most people miss what that message was), but it’s just too unapproachable, whereas Martin Scorsese for “Hugo” actually proves an ability to change. Even if he doesn’t get the Best Picture award, he’s all over this one. The pacing might be very (well) Scorsese-esque, but the film style and performances are so unexpected from this often-stubborn director. And then there’s Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist”, who’s written and directed something confoundedly beautiful. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a steal.

Best Picture

It’s “The Artist”. Hands down. The only real contenders in this disjointed collection are “Hugo” and “The Descendants”, but Oscar just can’t help but award such a self-indulgent endeavor that glorifies classic Hollywood. Plenty of people are mad Oscar snubbed “Drive” and replaced it with the critically disclaimed “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” — and rightfully so — but I’m less interested in this debate. I remain one of the few people out there who finds it difficult to ignore one of the greatest film franchises in history. Let’s be honest, out of the 10 films nominated here, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II” (not on that list) will outlast them all. This is “The Dark Knight” in 2008 and “Pan’s Labyrinth” in 2006 all over again. Changing the category from five to 10 films didn’t improve the caliber of nominations: it just allows more self-indulgence.

And the Award Goes To…

The 2012 Oscars is set to be a rather predictable evening, and the safe list of Best Picture nominations says it all. “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” isn’t a good film, but it’s the only 9/11 film that’s either watchable (unlike “World Trade Center”) or not an action film (“United 93”). Rather than wait for a truly amazing film about this national tragedy, Oscar’s attempt to remain relevant blinds its aesthetic eye. And oh, “The Tree of Life”…nominated because nobody really knows what to do with you, and in a jaded environment like Hollywood, that’s enough to make heads turn.

“War Horse” had the sentimentality of “Forrest Gump” with the watchability of “Seabiscuit”. It was nominated for its grand and sentimental tale, not for the narrative execution. And then “The Help”, a very enjoyable film that’s far from amazing, made the list due to its historical setting. Nothing says naiveté more than nominating a film that addresses civil rights while providing a nice pat on the back to the white saviors.

Plenty of interesting films premiered this past year, but Oscar seems to only care about 15 of them. One day they’ll get it right. There’s always 2013.